With the results of the State elections out last week, the political landscape of the country looks as different as ever. With the thumping win for the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Congress itself in Assam, the UPA has gained some ground, which it lost after the Bihar and Jharkhand assembly elections last year. At the same time , the South looks anti-UPA as never before.
With the crushing defeat in Tamil-Nadu and Puducherry, the UPA looks to be struggling in the whole region. Even the win in Kerala was unimpressive and feeble to say the least.Come 2014,the UPA will be facing a 10 year anti-incumbency wave in Andhra Pradesh, the phenomenon called Jagan Reddy, and the discontent over the Telangana issue as well. If we were to consider classical psephology, the UPA is all set to lose a chunk of their Lok Sabha seats in the South in 2014.
However , The scenario in the East is remarkably different. The Left looks jaded and tired, and TMC is going ahead all guns blazing. And with Assam proving to be a Congress bastion,the East looks to be secure for the UPA. But the point to ponder upon is that whether The Congress has just rode on TMC's back in West Bengal, and whether change was so inevitable that policies did not matter? Maybe 34 years proved to be a bit too much for everybody in Bengal.
But what did these results bring for the BJP? Sadly nothing.
The NDA still continues to be a pale shadow of what it used to be. Unless and until it expands and brings in more regional parties into its fold, its sadly going to be a story of an opposition which never opposed , a challenger which never challenged.
The NDA desperately needs AIADMK and TDP in the south, and the BJD and the AGP in the East. Without more regional parties as its allies, The BJP wouldn't stand a chance in 2014. And the people of India will be left with only one choice for a stable government that could last 5 years.
With the illusion of the Third Front well and truly gone, lets hope that common sense prevails, and that these regional parties join hands with the BJP to give the Congress a tough fight, and a viable option to the people of India.
As Far as Mayawati's concerned, she can build her own statues all across Uttar Pradesh for 8 more months. The people of UP will take care of her next year. And to think that she was considered a Prime-Ministerial candidate just 3 years ago (July 2008, Nuclear Deal Confidence Motion).
Democracy truly has a way of surprising us more often than not.
The ground reality in UP is that it won't be possible for Congress and Samajwadi Party to dethrone Mayawati. Whatever might be the situation Dalits(20%), Brahmans(7-8 %) and most of the Muslims(15%) will vote for her. Her seats may reduce in 2012, but Congress or BJP will ultimately support her and we may again see a BSP govt. here in UP.
ReplyDeleteIn a four way battle, attaining a majority is difficult anyways. And with 5 years of anti-incumbency, its almost impossible to come t power alone. In the scenario of a hung assembly, it would be very interesting to see who supports whom. As of today, both BSP and SP are closer to the UPA, maybe virtually a part of it as well. Its certain that some political equations will change in the run-up to the elections.
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