Are we headed for a Financial Apocalypse?

As The White House and The Congress play a terrifying game of chicken over the US government debt ceiling , the 2nd day of August 2011 seems to be the D-Day.If President Obama and the Republican right in Congress are not able to cut a deal to raise the legal limit of US borrowing – which will otherwise reach its ceiling on 2 August – then a financial tsunami will hit the system with consequences which are impossible to predict.

For the past few months there have been om

inous warnings of a new financial crisis in the United States that would likely have global repercussions if the US Congress doesn't wake up and raise the government debt ceiling, or legal borrowing limit, now set at US$14.3 trillion.But why this hue and cry over a routine exercise? Raising the debt ceiling is a normal legislative exercise in the United States of America. It has been done 39 times since 1980 - including 17 times under Ronald Reagan, seven times under George W Bush , 4 times under Bill Clinton,and three previous times under Barack Obama as well.This time however, with a new Republican majority in the House of Representatives, it has become a hot partisan issue, with the Republicans determined to display their fiscal responsibility by demanding that a plan to balance the budget be approved before a deal on raising the debt ceiling is approved.

The grave predicament is that Lawmakers fear a big drop investor confidence in U.S. stocks and bonds, which could start in Asia and sweep towards Europe and the Americas, causing U.S. stock values to plunge.

Barring action by Aug. 2, the Treasury will run out of the money needed to pay all its bills, triggering a possible default that could seriously damage the domestic economy and send damaging waves across the globe.

Ireland's debt got downgraded to "junk" status last week and people believe that President Obama and his Republican foes will cut a last-minute deal to solve this Debt crisis. But don't bank on it. It's election year in 2012, many of them would be happy to see Obama defeated over rising unemployment – it's still above the lethal 9% — and don't understand what might happen if the world's reserve currency went wobbly. After all, they didn't get the consequences of letting Lehman Brothers go bust in September 2008.

So the second phase of the bank crisis of 2007-09 might now turn into a major sovereign debt crisis for the Western world, thus following the pattern of 1929 when recovery from the crash seemed to be underway before Britain – and others – plunged back down in 1931.

And if the United States of America does default on the morning of the 3rd day of August 2011 , the consequences would be nothing less than a financial apocalypse.

The War which we are losing... Everyday.

Mumbai 1993 . Mumbai 2003. Mumbai 2006 . Mumbai 2008. And now, Mumbai 2011. Five times in the last 18 years. Yes , 5 times. Mumbai has had to bear the brunt of terrorist attacks more than any other major city in the world over the past two decades. And its not just Mumbai which has been scarred and bruised over the past two decades. Pretty much the whole of India has the same story to tell. Every major city , be it New Delhi, Ahmedabad, Bangalore or Jaipur , has been targeted in the recent past.

And what do we always do? . We always end up blaming the forces from across the border. Some Jehadist organistaion is first cursed , then our government is abused , and then we pity on our secirity forces. End of story. Life back to normal. Have we ever had an honest introspection about the reasons for this terror? Have we ever wondered as to what has gone wrong with the security apparatus of this country over the last 20 years?. Sadly , the answer is an emphatic No.

The main reason behind this painful ordeal is our nonchalant attitude towards security. Just take a glance into our daily lives , and you will know what i'm talking about. For example , we have metal detectors installed at most railway stations and shopping malls. But how many of us bother to go through them? The answer is Very few! Our police force is generally equipped with arms and ammunition which , honestly speaking, is obsolete and useless. Our coastal secutiry is a shambles. Our investigative agencies lack the technical expertise to counter new age terrorism.

We expect hawaldars , who are generally 12th pass or just mere graduates , to prevent, counter and thwart highly trained terrorists, that too with obsolete arms and ammunition. And after a terror attack , we expect the same people to collect evidence forensically and crack the case.

If we expect a police force trained and armed from the 1970's era , with counter terror laws framed more than half a century ago , to fight modern age terrorism , we are just fooling ourselves.

There needs to be a debate in this country about the larger role of the people in the fight against terror. We need to discuss the real issues which are ailing us. Just hanging Kasab and Afzal Guru won't do. We'll have to hang our cavalier attitude and perfunctory approach as well.

Is Congress the Only Option?

We are less than three years away from General Elections 2014. And more than sven years after the UPA came to power in 2004 , it seems that mantra of "Congress ka haath, Aam Aadmi ke saath" is no longer refulgant. But in a parliamentary democracy , the opposition and its strength is as much of a presursor , as anti-incumbency. And this is what makes us wonder... IS CONGRESS THE ONLY OPTION?


The main opposition force in this country happens to be the NDA. And its performance as the principal opposition party has been disappointing to say the least. But lets leave the qualitative analysis for some other day. Rather , lets have a psephological analysis in this post.

Starting from the north , BJP looks vulnerable in Haryana and it has never performed well in Jammu and Kashmir. In the other states though , it will give a tough fight to the Congress.


The Western and the Centre states do not seem to be a problem , atleast till Narendra Modi is at the helm in Gujarat. But Maharastra is fast becoming a sinking ship for the NDA. Its alliance partner Shiv Sena looks a vague form of itself , and it is fast being obscured by Raj Thackeray's MNS. The BJP , on the other hand , suffers from internal conflict and poor organisational management. All this , even after more than a decade of Congress-NCP rule.

The East seems to be an opportunity lost for the BJP. With no major allies in West Bengal and Orissa , the BJP would draw a null from more than 60 seats in these two states. The decision to go alone in the recently concluded Assam polls has not yielded desirable results , and even a coalition with the AGP seems to be a weak force when compared to the Congress.

But the real problem lies down South. Apart from Karnataka , the BJP has nothing to show for as far as electoral arithmetic is concerned. With no major allies in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh , its credentials as a national party becomes dubious. Add Kerala to the whole scenario, and we have got around 100 Lok Sabha seats where even the mere presence of the NDA is debatable.

All these accumulate to roughly 180 seats , which is close to one-third of the Lok Sabha. And to add to the woes of the NDA , it is locked in a four way battle in Uttar Pradesh , which the is the most important state , as far as the road to Delhi is concerned. Even if we refrain from speculating about the purmutations and possibilities in Uttar Pradesh , its difficult to see the NDA bringing home the bacon in 2014 in its present form.


There might be a lot of anger and discontent with the performance of this Manmohan Singh led UPA Government , but the people of this country need a viable option to effect any change. In a parliamentary democracy , numbers matter as much as policies. And despite the pathetic performance of this government , the Numbers tell a different tale.

Come 2014, we might end up with only one option for a stable government which would last its whole term. And that option might turn out to be The Congress, again!.Wake up NDA!